STORM FORECAST
VALID Sat 01 Apr 06:00 - Sun 02 Apr 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 31 Apr 20:39 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Saturday at 06:00 UTC... westerly flow is expected to prevail across western Europe, split in a jet streak south of Ireland and one over the Iberian Peninsula. Advection of slightly unstable air onto the continent is forecast to cause the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Although the deep-layer wind shear is expected to be moderate, relatively low instability and poorly focused forcing for upward vertical motion suggest that the threat of severe storms will be small. Some strong gusts could however occur... mostly across Ireland, Wales and England.

A trough, initially over the eastern Balkans moves off-shore but is not followed by subsidence, so that local showers and storms, mostly along the Black Sea coast of Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania are likely to form.

DISCUSSION

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